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Record Boxes of all types (Song Cases excluded) are guaranteed to reward a song. Each song within the box has an equal chance of dropping.
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Wishlist Boxes guarantee you a song that you don't own yet AND have liked. Each song has an equal chance of dropping.
Each Song Case has the following drop rates:
SMALL CASE
70% - no choice - 3 to 5 cards
30% - choice - 3 to 5 cards
LARGE CASE
100% - choice - 6 to 8 cards